The Central Bank Is Preparing New "Big Red Envelopes" To Bring New Benefits.

CPI has gone down, and the possibility that the central bank will cut interest rates in the fourth quarter has increased greatly, and is almost certain.

You know, the central bank has been committed to a steady growth in market interest rates.

This is also the direction of the efforts of the Central Bank of Europe and Japan, so the low interest rate is almost a global trend (except the United States and Britain, where the economy is strong, and interest rates are being considered).

The interest rate cut is good for the property market and the stock market.

And China's property market is facing a rare era of low interest rates, whether commercial mortgage or provident fund loans, the interest rate of buyers has been lower than the "four trillion" stimulus policy in 2009.

CPI is more important than PPI because it has a direct impact on currency.

Space.

CPI rose by 1.6% in September and 2% in August.

But these two numbers are significant, because there are qualitative changes.

At present, the central bank's benchmark deposit rate for one year is 1.75%.

If inflation is higher than this figure, negative interest rates will be formed.

If it is lower than this figure, it constitutes a positive interest rate.

That is to say, in August, China experienced a negative negative interest rate and became a positive interest rate in September.

In the negative interest rate period, generally, the central bank is embarrassed to cut interest rates again, because this is a hindrance to the retail investors and may be interpreted as a "strong stimulus" for monetary policy.

But the interest rate is different. It means that the central bank still has room to cut interest rates.

So who made the CPI decline from 2% in August to 1.6% in September? It's a pig.

In China

In the composition, eating accounts for the largest proportion, while in the "formula", pork is the big head.

Therefore, there has always been a saying that "pigs decide China's CPI".

The price of pork is fluctuating, and it is renamed "pig cycle". At present, the pig cycle is in the bull market.

Only, the bull market also has the adjustment, last month high, this month fall, thus driving the CPI down.

Some people may say that since the "pig cycle" is in the * * stage, if the pork price rebounded next month, will CPI not rise again? Will the central bank still cut interest rates?

My view is that pork prices should be difficult to continue to rise because global commodity prices are in bear market, forming corn feed formula and so on.

It is also difficult to rebound sharply.

Moreover, CPI is issued by Statistics Bureau.

Therefore, the central bank's interest rate cuts are certain.

So, at least in the interest rate environment, the property market will face positive.

Will the property market soar? My view remains the same: the property market in the first tier cities and strong second tier cities will be most perceptive, and the future will be hot enough to be regulated.

The loss of the 345 line cities, the property market has been difficult to pick up.

As for the stock market, it is not enough to just go down on interest rates.

Because we also have IPO registration system reform such a major incident.

Moreover, the stock market has not returned to normal, and IPO, refinancing and shareholder reduction have been controlled.

Against this background, it is still hard to be optimistic.

The trend of the stock market depends entirely on what the government thinks and how to do it.